USDA Surprises With Smaller Yield Estimates

USDA cut its estimate of the US corn harvest for the 2015/16 marketing year to 13.601 billion bushels from 13.654 billion, lowering the average yield per acre to 168.4 bushels from 169.3 bushels.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015-’16 are projected 6.8 million tons lower mostly on lower corn production for South Africa and the United States and lower rye production for Russian Federation.

Ending stocks for the 2015 harvest were raised for corn and wheat, to 1.802 billion and 941 million, respectively, and topped trade forecasts.

Despite edging lower, traders remained on the sidelines, cautious of taking fresh positions ahead of a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that is expected to show the lowest U.S. winter wheat plantings since 2009.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predict federal forecasters will report that US farmers in 2015 harvested a record soybean crop, while stockpiles of the oilseeds also grew compared to a year earlier.

“The largest decline in planted acreage are estimated in the Great Plains states”, with Nebraska area hitting a record low of 1.28m acres.

Global 2015/16 rice supplies are raised 0.9 million tons to 574.0 million primarily on increased production.

Prior to the government data’s release in Washington, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, a measure of returns from 22 raw materials, fell to its lowest since at least 1991.

Soybean production is estimated at a record high 236 million bushels, with an average yield of 46 bushels per harvested acre, also a record.

Ending stocks are projected at 440 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The average of analysts’ estimates for soybean stocks was 468 million bushels. The average yield was 96 bushels an acre, which tied the previous high set in 2011 and was 14 bushels higher than the average in 2014.

USDA also released its grain stocks report Tuesday.

Estimates for the other winter wheat types included 6.72 million acres of soft red winter wheat and 3.43 million acres of white winter wheat nationwide. Texas planted just 5.3 million acres, down 12 per cent. Oklahoma seeded 4.9 million acres, an 8 per cent drop.