After the final results from rivalry weekend served the College Football Playoff Selection Committee its worst nightmare on a silver platter, the 2016 conference championship week comes shadowed with uncertainties. “It’s a team that the Selection Committee has been impressed with all year, and we saw a convincing win last week, I would say a quality win in convincing manner last week”.
Big 12: If Oklahoma State’s loss to Central Michigan had been changed by the NCAA, the Cowboys would probably be ranked around No. 4 or No. 5.
The picture grows a little muddier if Penn State wins Saturday, because the Nittany Lions upset Ohio State the week after the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin.
Despite not being in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State and MI remain ranked higher than Penn State and Wisconsin, who will play for the Big Ten title.
Yet, perhaps what’s most freaky about this year’s Big Ten Championship is the widely shared belief that the two title contenders, Wisconsin and Penn State, are the third and fourth best teams in the conference respectively.
Most experts believe Ohio State (11-1), even though it won’t play for the Big Ten championship, stamped its ticket for the playoffs with a 30-27 victory over MI in double overtime Saturday at Ohio Stadium.
“From the discussion, the debate, the discussion between Washington and MI is very small”, Hocutt said. If Penn State (10-2) wins it will have what seems like a particularly good argument to make the playoff ahead of the Buckeyes.
Who gets in: Big Ten champ Wisconsin or MI? “Look at a Western Michigan team that is very successful on the offensive side of the ball”, Hocutt said. The Sooners seem to have a slightly better shot, only because the committee has consistently ranked them ahead of Oklahoma State, but OU will also need some chaos – likely both Washington and Clemson losing.
Right now, OSU should be a lock for the playoff. MI has a loss at Iowa.
The outburst cost MI $10,000 in the form of a fine Monday from the Big Ten, pocket change when the coach makes $7 million a year. Although Alabama has been flying high at #1 the entire season, behind them there has been a ton of chaos leading up to the final impressions on the committee. The Wisconsin-Minnesota and Penn State-Michigan State games took on more significance as well.
In addition to seeding the top four teams in this week’s projection, the group also voiced its opinion on the comparative strength of the Badgers and Penn State. Despite an impressive résumé, MI may need a minor miracle to make it into the playoff.
Their losses are no better than Michigan’s, and the Wolverines beat them by 39.
This is a bit easier because it’s easier to pick a conference champion.
So, in the above scenarios, where I talk about a playoff spot going to Wisconsin as the Big Ten champion or MI, I am expecting it to be Wisconsin but accounting for the possibility that the committee sees it differently.
The Michigan Wolverines drop down to number five following Saturday’s double overtime loss to the Buckeyes in Columbus. Undefeated Alabama, however, could stay in the poll even with a loss. But what Happens if #4 Washington beats #8 Colorado, and Penn State Beats Wisconsin??