Blow for Jeremy Corbyn as Tories achieve historic win in Copeland by-election

Labour. The votes of the main parties didn’t move much in Stoke. “If you’d written this down a year ago and said there would be a by-election nearly two years into a Government’s tenure and the opposition would lose it to the Government, by that sort of margin, it’s wonderful and historic”.

“We have said with one voice that hatred and bigotry are not welcome here”. “Nothing whatsoever will happen”.

“The Labour party is pro civil nuclear. I am proud to lead this party”, he told reporters.

He also hit out at former leader Tony Blair for his criticism of Mr Corbyn ahead of the polls.

The Conservatives won with a swing of seven per cent, an unprecedented result for a governing party. The worry today is that, as we enter spring, our party’s long winter may have a long way to go.

The elections were called because Stoke’s Labour member of Parliament since 2010 resigned to become director of the Victoria and Albert Museum in London, and Copeland’s Labour MP for 12 years quit to head community relations at a nuclear decommissioning site.

John Woodcock, the MP for neighbouring Barrow-in-Furness, said the party was not an effective opposition and had to do better.

And he blamed “disinformation and misinformation” by Conservatives about Mr Corbyn’s stance on the nuclear issue for undermining voters’ support for Labour. The seat has been Labour since it was formed in 1983, but its majority has been steadily eroded by the Conservatives in subsequent elections, dropping to just 2,564 in 2015.

The Tory candidate, Trudy Harrison, won with 13,748 votes to Ms Troughton’s 11,601, increasing the Conservative vote share in the constituency by 8 points to 44 per cent. If the Conservatives can gain Copeland, there are few seats where they won’t fancy their chances. Election analyst Matt Singh wrote earlier this week that the last comparable by-election victory was way back in 1876. The centrist Liberal Democrats are optimistic about a comeback after winning a unexpected by-election in December, but have a mountain to climb after being almost wiped out in 2015’s general election.

He insisted the defeat did not bring Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership of the party into question and urged colleagues to rally round him.

“Ignoring this insults everyone who needs a Labour government”, he said.

There was some consolation for Labour in Stoke-on-Trent Central, where it saw off a concerted challenge from Ukip leader Paul Nuttall – albeit with a reduced majority.

The threat of UKIP in Labour’s heartlands appears diminished.

The shadow chancellor said Labour would “learn lessons” from the result, but said it had not been a verdict on the party leader.

“We are the Labour Party, we are capable of taking stock of this result, of rebuilding and coming back”. “Only losing one seat rather than two makes it less likely that the party will fully get the message that, unless it somehow contrives to get shot of Corbyn, then it’s heading for disaster at the next general election”.

Mr Corbyn said on his Facebook page as the polls closed: “Whatever the results, the Labour Party – and our mass membership – must go further to break the failed political consensus, and win power to rebuild and transform Britain”.

The simple truth is that the public have made up their mind about Corbyn and there is no sign of that even beginning to change.

But there is some hope for Labour, says the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush, as the campaign seems to hinge on the NHS.