College playoff chaos: Three of CFP top four fall in Week 11

Despite a surprising loss at home to Pittsburgh, the losses by Washington and MI opened the door for Clemson to come in at No. 4. MI also fell to Iowa back then, with current Coach Jim Harbaugh at quarterback. Auburn 8-2 19. Nebraska 8-2 20.

Watson threw for an ACC-record 580 yards and three touchdowns. The chances for an outlier that didn’t win its league are enhanced if at least one two-loss team wins a Power Five conference. But on Saturday the Tigers fell to a four-loss Pitt squad that lost to Miami (Fla.) by 23 one week earlier. Just line up Alabama against Western Michigan at Raymond James Stadium. Barring another upset loss, Clemson is headed to the conference title game and a win there could keep it in contention for a playoff spot.

Penn State is also in an interesting spot with two losses. Michigan, Clemson, Wisconsin and Washington followed, in that order. But things are also tricky moving forward. If Penn State wins out, Ohio State can not win the East division. (In the playoff’s two seasons, it has yet to invite a non-champ.) Its narrow victory over Louisville stands as the season’s biggest.

Can you rattle off all the different upsets from Saturday night? If the Wolverines win out, they’re division champion.

Colorado has its highest ranking since it was No. 12 on December 1, 2002. MI and Clemson both managed to stay in the top 5 at No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, but the two-loss Wisconsin Badgers leapt over the No. 7 Washington Huskies following their demolition of IL. Jalen Hurts has been stellar as a freshman while playing Chattanooga and Auburn to finish the regular season. Ohio State plays MI on November 26 in a game that could decide the Big Ten’s East division.

Helping that cause: Ohio State beat Oklahoma, and MI handled Colorado. It’s clearly the best team in its conference, but its conference is tepid and – we note again – has no championship game.

The ACC is a two horse race between Louisville (9-1) and the recently fallen Clemson Tigers (9-1). Clemson, which beat Louisville by six this year, is a large obstacle.

The loss now makes it much more hard for Clemson to reach the CFP.

Each week, I will predict where the Playoff Committee places the Top 10 teams.

No. 25 Troy is ranked for the first time in school history. The Wolverines simply need to win out to make the Big Ten Championship Game, and a win then would surely secure their playoff spot.

Ohio State was ranked fifth last weekend, but expect the Buckeyes to move up this week. Don’t see it, but, of course, I didn’t see three of the top four losing Saturday. Now, under a complex tiebreaker, they need Penn State to lose again, which seems like a longshot with the Nittany Lions finishing against woeful Rutgers and Michigan State.

Ohio State players sing after an NCAA college football game against Maryland in College Park, Md., Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016.

If Wisconsin wins out and wins the Big Ten Championship Game, they should be guaranteed a spot due to their strong resume.

West Virginia: Don’t count out a one-loss Big 12 champ, but the Mountaineers have a strength-of-schedule problem.

And Alabama still looks like the safest bet, undefeated and sitting atop the heap. The Sooners’ loss to Houston has become a bad loss.

That said, two of those three could remain in the top four when fresh rankings are released Tuesday night, which would mean not much has changed.

The minute that happened back in 1998, it was possible a team that didn’t so much as win its division could win a national championship.