Iraqi Kurds should call off referendum, says Erdogan

“I will be this afternoon in Arbil to tell Massud Barzani that we do not support the Kurdish referendum“, he said at a press conference in Baghdad.

Iraqi authorities in the northern city of Kirkuk have imposed a nighttime curfew to prevent a deadly dispute from developing into ethnic clashes before a referendum on Kurdish independence, local residents have said.

Under this plan, a well-placed source told AFP, the global community will oversee negotiations on revenue sharing in Iraq’s oil budget and payment for Kurdish militia fighters.

Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced support for “the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to attain a state of its own”.

Considering the fact that conflicting regions like Kirkuk will take part in the referendum, how will non-Kurdish movements and residents like Turkmens take this referendum, will they accept its results?

Kurds in north Syria, like those in Iraq, have capitalized on the turmoil in both countries to consolidate a degree of autonomy.

Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said Tehran and Ankara had a shared interest in preserving Iraq’s territorial integrity and also enjoyed extensive communication channels.

Turkish intelligence chief Hakan Fidan and Iranian Al Quds force commander Qassem Soleimani have warned the Kurds on visits to Iraqi Kurdistan to back away from the referendum. The military drills now being conducted at the Habur border crossing are meant to intimidate northern Iraq, but Turkey does have other options before resorting to any military option, including closing Habur or the Kirkuk-Yumurtalık oil pipeline. The vote follows several decades of acrimony between Kurdish administrators and the federal government in Baghdad, acrimony that predates the US -led invasion in 2003.

If Turkey stops KRG’s oil transfer, the KRG’s independence plan could be shelved, he said.

Turkey, Iran and Iraq on Thursday urged Iraq’s Kurdistan region to abandon a planned referendum on independence, threatening unspecified “counter-measures” if it goes ahead with the vote.

The only clear backing for the referendum within the region has come from Israel, a longstanding if low-key backer of Kurdish ambitions as a non-Arab buffer against the Jewish state’s arch enemy Iran. Erdogan did not spell out what sanctions Turkey might be considering, but truck drivers waiting at Habur on Wednesday said they feared for their livelihoods if cross-border trade, crucial to the local economy, dries up. Kurdish Regional Government President Masoud Barzani has said a Yes vote would not initiate a declaration of independence but would lead to negotiations with Baghdad.

He added that the referendum would lead to the emergence of new threats against the Kurdistan region and make the situation a lot more complicated.