Irish PM’s coalition struggles ahead of election, inconclusive poll possible

For Noel Whelan, a political pundit for the Irish Times, one of the reasons for divided voter loyalties is Fine Gael’s attempt to emulate the winning strategy of Britain’s Conservative Party, which won a surprise majority a year ago on a platform cautioning voters not to risk the economic recovery.

“It’s clearly an anti-austerity election… one of the most unpredictable of the last decades”, said Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. They don’t want the growing unfairness and division of this government. Kenny and Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin both have rejected this idea. He said he accepted huge pressure was put on families across the country but said “something needs to be done now to ensure the recovery benefits more people”.

Many do not share his optimism, and the gap may also turn out to be too wide for them to govern with small parties or independent candidates.

“For a large cohort of people it’s not getting better, they are still in very desperate circumstances”, Adshead said. “It was a tax too far”, said Richard Colwell, head of Red C polling.

“For both parties, such an arrangement would represent a poisoned chalice, particularly because of the opportunity Sinn Fein would gain in becoming the main opposition voice”.

In his final public comments before polls open, prime minister Kenny urged voters to re-elect his Fine Gael party with Labour as junior partner, saying “we need to finish the job”.

The country has been led alternately by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael since 1932, bitter rivals whose divisions go back to a 1920s civil war.

The most commonly predicted outcome would require Fine Gael to form an unprecedented coalition with its political nemesis, Fianna Fail. Kenny’s Fine Gael party may try to form a minority government, but the model’s inherent instability – each piece of legislation requires support from other parties – makes that an unattractive option.