Monsoon like rains to increase over West Coast

Kolkata: Monsoon in Kerala is “slightly delayed” and likely to set in by June 6 and “normal to excess rainfall” is expected over most parts of the country from July till September, said private weather forecaster Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS). Going by the second stage forecast, the Central Indian States will receive 113 per cent rain of the long period average (LPA). The normal onset date for monsoon is June 1.

Indian Meteorological Department’s confirmation about above normal rainfall, mostly from 104 per cent to 110 per cent, has come as a huge relief for drought stricken Maharashtra.

Kerala is receiving a good patchy pre-monsoon rainfall.

The long range forecast is based on six weather parameters from different parts of the world whose values correlate with the summer rainfall in India and thus may be used to predict the behaviour of the monsoon.

Director of IMD, Odisha Sarat Chandra Sahu said the Bay of Bengal wing of the monsoon current is expected to strengthen and help advancement of the monsoon to the State.

There are 50 percent chances of India receiving “normal” rainfall in June while the figure will jump to 60 percent in July and August.

Eastern and northeastern India is likely to receive 94 per cent of the average, but weather scientists point out that this should not be seen as a significant deficit because of the relatively high absolute rainfall in the eastern region. However, it is to be remembered that even in a normal or above normal years, there can be small pockets still, may be a deficient rainfall still can get.

“No one has predicted deficient rainfall this year”.

For the past two years, over 2,55,000 villages across 255 districts and 10 states are suffering from drought that has affected over 33 crore people.

According to the IMD, El Nino conditions which weaken the monsoon rains are now at a “neutral position” and there is a 50% probability of La Nina conditions getting established during the later part of the monsoon season to boost rainfall.