Oklahoma Sooners shouldn’t be in 2015 College Football Playoff

Most likely what will happen is that Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State all win, and they along with Oklahoma will provide a great second year of the playoffs. It won’t shock anybody when Michigan State wins this game on the road and celebrates a Big Ten title with a berth in this year’s College Football Playoff. One seems certain to go to Oklahoma, which crushed rival Oklahoma State last weekend to finish 11-1 and win the Big 12 title.

Oklahoma wrapped up the Big 12 championship last week and is idle Saturday because there’s no Big 12 championship game.

You could make a strong argument that a two-loss Alabama team would beat any Big Ten or Pac-12 school on a neutral field, but the committee isn’t likely to keep the Crimson Tide in the top four if no other upsets happen.

Clemson vs. Oklahoma projection in the college football championship has Oklahoma wins71. 7% chance (60.4% last week) of the time against the Tigers by an average score of 36-28 (31-27 last week) according to the simulations.

The Gators untimely and unimpressive loss to Florida State last week has counted them out for the playoffs, but if they defeat Alabama on Saturday it might spoil the Crimson Tide’s top four hopes. While Notre Dame-Ohio State would be one of the best premier bowl matchups in recent years, a rematch of 2014’s Notre Dame-Florida State game – with Everett Golson on the other sideline – would be outstanding as well. The Hawkeyes deserves a ton of credit for what they accomplished running the table with 12 straight wins, but they aren’t as battle-tested as the Spartans. A loss probably eliminates them from contention unless all of the team ahead of them and Stanford lose. In fact, the Buckeyes probably would be the best one-loss team (excluding Oklahoma) if chaos ensues. That could be a problem if it is Michigan State that loses because the Buckeyes lost to MSU head-to-head. However, on championship weekend Ohio State whipped Wisconsin 59-0. Don’t be surprised if those factors play a role if Alabama and Clemson lose.

If one of the top two slip up, No. 7 Stanford has a final chance to make its case against No. 24 USC in the Pac-12 title game.

The winner of the Michigan State-Iowa game is on, so any change to the playoff lineup would have to start with a loss by Clemson and/or Alabama in their conference title games, which could open a possible path for Stanford. Alabama and Stanford certainly would need to lose.

The Spartans pushed themselves back into the conversation for a playoff spot with their wild win over Ohio State and the playoff selection committee has made it pretty clear that the winner of this game will earn a spot in the final four.