What to look for in Iowa’s presidential caucuses

Opinion polls show that leading Democrat Hillary Clinton is supported by 47% of people likely to vote in the Iowa caucuses, compared to her main rival Bernie Sanders’ 44%. Among Iowa’s 3.1 million inhabitants, there are now about 584,000 active Democratic voters, 611,000 active Republican voters, and 725,000 registered under no party affiliation, according to Iowa’s secretary of state. And how is it different from the primary a week later in New Hampshire? We play a major role in deciding who will be, and who won’t be, the next president of the United States.

In Iowa, groups of voters will meet in 1,681 precincts throughout the state beginning at 7 p.m. local time Monday.

A number of candidates who stopped in Northwest Iowa drew big crowds Saturday, which featured relatively balmy weather for a late January day.

The caucuses will take place in neighborhoods like yours across the state.

He noted that many prospective Iowa caucusgoers have indicated they are either undecided or could change their mind, which he believes provides an opening for him to outperform expectations Monday night.

Some could pivot quickly and throw their support behind another candidate.

From there, it varies widely between parties.

If you’re caucusing as a Democrat, you might get a little bit of exercise in the process!

Tallying the outcome in Iowa is also complicated on the Democratic side, where candidates have to have to support of at least 15 percent voters at a caucus site to become “viable”. Since 1976, eight of the 10 caucuses have featured multiple challengers; of those eight, the victor in Iowa has gone on to be the nominee six times.

“Iowa is important for New Mexicans, because they get to see what happens and it gives them time to do more research to make a choice”, Maestas said. In fact, he reminds voters that Governor Terry Branstad even suggested he will surprise the state on caucus night. Because 92 percent of Iowa’s population is white, a candidate can hypothetically ignore minority issues and win free media coverage after a victory. The group then moves on to party business. On the Republican side, real estate mogul Donald Trump heads into the caucus with the lead over Texas Senator Ted Cruz. So is Eric Woolson, a seasoned operative in Hawkeye State politics, who told me that “in the last 12 hours I have decided that Trump could win”.

A caucus essentially means a meeting where each party will choose its nominee. It’s where the caucus victor has gone on to win the nomination only about half the time over the past 30 years.

But Iowa’s political veterans say that’s not the point. “Or another phrase I use is “to separate the contenders from the pretenders” – the people who are serious candidates from those who aren’t”.

But pity the candidate who bombs in both states.

“The most important thing the people of Iowa can do is participate”.

And both states are small, providing certain advantages to the candidates, Hagle said.

If you do indeed get three tickets out of Iowa, nobody is happier about that than Martin O’Malley. Former Sen. Rick Santorum and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, for example, completed the so-called undercard debate for candidates at the bottom of preference polls and then headed straight for Trump’s renegade rally a few miles away.

“If we can do that, Iowa’s going to be first in the nation again”, said Kaufmann in closing.